Scott Dickerman, the managing director of Pinnacle, recently advised Nigerians to lower their expectations regarding the impact of the Dangote Refinery on petrol prices. Speaking at the 2024 Nigerian Association of Energy Correspondents' (NAEC) conference, he explained that the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery, while a major development, is unlikely to bring about significant reductions in fuel costs anytime soon.Dickerman attributed the rising cost of petrol and other goods in Nigeria to the devaluation of the Naira. He noted that the price hikes experienced over the past year are not due to government policy, price gouging, or an increase in the price of crude oil. Instead, he emphasized that the root cause is the falling value of the Naira. Since global market prices for oil commodities are dollar-based, every drop in the Naira's value directly raises the cost of petrol and other imports.The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), currently the sole importer and off-taker of gasoline from the Dangote Refinery, has recently adjusted its prices, resulting in petrol being sold at between N850 and N1,000 per litre. Despite this, Dickerman stressed that addressing the country’s economic challenges, particularly by restoring confidence in the Naira and boosting foreign investments, is the only way to bring down fuel costs in Nigeria. He urged the government to adopt measures such as fiscal prudence, increasing tax revenue, and attracting investments in local production and jobs to stabilize the economy.Furthermore, Dickerman questioned the belief that Dangote Refinery’s local production would lead to below-market prices. He pointed out that the refinery has the ability to sell its products on the global market at standard rates and would likely prioritize such optimization strategies, just like any other business. For these reasons, Nigerians should not expect drastic price reductions at the pumps simply because of local production.